ELECT
Win With Welcome
Winning Where it Matters.
Our data-driven due diligence process identifies the most valuable Democrats in Trump-won US House districts. Welcome backed candidates consistently overperform the partisan baseline by more than 5%—providing the best return on investment for Democrats committed to building a durable majority.
We don’t just run the numbers. Welcome’s team identifies the most vulnerable incumbent Republicans and the most promising Democratic challengers, then works with partners to give those candidates the coaching, community, and resources to win.
Our Approach
Focus: since 2021, our investments have been entirely in Trump-won US House districts represented by vulnerable MAGA incumbents.
Research: our due diligence team crunches the numbers, then goes on-the-ground with partners to get a full picture of district dynamics and areas for investment.
Differentiate: investments from the Welcome community are usually earlier than other Democratic groups, targeting the most persuadable voters with differentiated messaging.
Iterate: we are a learning organization, testing new models in our red-district niche to increase our effectiveness each cycle.
Adam won the closest race in the country by 182 votes, despite Trump winning the district by 6%. Founded the Problem Solvers Caucus in the California legislature, now serves as whip of the Blue Dog Coalition.
Marie and her husband run an auto body shop, and this young mom is on a mission to fix up Congress. A Blue Dog co-chair, she won a Trump +3 district by 4% in 2024.
Jared is the only recent candidate to win a Trump district four times. A Marine, Blue Dog co-chair, and champion of place-based politics whose district voted for Trump by 10% in 2024.
Tom won a special election in 2024 for the Trump-won seat vacated by George Santos, then led on humane immigration reform. The Problem Solvers co-chair ran 8% ahead of Kamala Harris in November.
Rebecca ran 7% ahead of other Democrats, but this waitress and local leader fell just short in a district Trump won by 8%. She’s back to finish the job in 2026.
Kristen was the most successful Trump-district challenger in 2024, running 9% ahead in a district that voted for Trump by 2%. She is the Freshman Leader for the NewDem Coalition.
Janelle was a longtime news anchor - and Republican. As a Democratic candidate in 2024, she lost one of the closest races in the country to MAGA extremist Scott Perry. The #2 Trump-district overperformer in ‘24 is back to win in ‘26.
OUR CANDIDATES’ VALUES
We reject the purity tests imposed on politics by the far left. Our candidates are bold free thinkers. They do not all share the same policy prescriptions, but the same values:
Welcome Candidates are real people who talk and act like it. They are authentic and straightforward.
Welcome Candidates are willing to differentiate themselves from the National party brand on specific, tangible, policy points.
Welcome Candidates lead from lived experience, putting their constituents before their party.
Our Track Record
Since 2022, Welcome has worked to perfect a formula for how Democrats can take on and beat Trump incumbents in districts that the party’s formal machinery overlooks. In 2022 we identified the top Democratic overperformers when we supported Will Rollins (CA-41) and Adam Frisch (CO-03) in races pundits said were “safe” Republican seats.
In 2024, we invested in 9 candidates in Trump-won districts – all over-performers who ran an average of 5% ahead of the top of the ticket. This slate included Reps. Jared Golden (ME-02) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03), both of whom won re-election in districts that Trump won, as well as challengers Rebecca Cooke (WI-03) and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) who ran far ahead of Kamala Harris and came within percentage points of victory against some of the most extreme Trump allies in Congress.
Our Win The Middle campaign is a multi-cycle effort to identify & support dynamic centrist Democrats who, by running bold pragmatic campaigns in center-right US House districts, can both show high return on investment and demonstrate a new path forward for the party.
Welcome’s Win The Middle candidates run thoughtful, constituent-first, campaigns – demonstrating how Democrats can win back voters who are looking for leaders who put them first.